Complacency Kills 3/1/2011 1:53:00 PM 
The latest reports on unemployment are more than I can take. Our bureaucrats are constantly revising the prior months estimates on hiring, unemployment, productivity gains, inflation, GDP growth, …the list goes on. Bernanke and Obama tell us things are trending the right way; in the short term I tend to believe them. The economy is stabilizing. The lumber markets in the last 12 months have been a roller coaster, and they are about to start trending flat due to nasty logging conditions through the winter in the Appalachian and Southern regions. What we have not seen is a marked increase in demand.
However, it’s time we give ourselves a little common sense reality check. I was reading headlines last week about how Wall Street is really ok with 9 to 15 percent unemployment. This is manifest by the current “melt-up” that the S&P is riding. The market is giving itself hope, notably by the trillions in market capitalization gains over the last two years. But, Wall Street has been wrong before and will be wrong again. Listen, I’m thrilled that the stock market has rebounded smartly; I’ve benefitted and I hope you have as well, but nothing yet has led to meaningful and sustainable growth — it just hasn’t. Let’s be honest, at this point in our economic recovery we have infused billions into the economy in many colors and flavors, and the recipients of this cash have taken the opportunity to pay down debt and reduce risk, but are only investing in their future as a secondary event. In the meantime our state, local and federal deficits are on the rise.
Gone are the days of 100 percent Cash out Re-Fi’s to do home improvement projects — and that’s a good thing. But demand is down and will stay down in North America for the next 12 months at least. Demand on the super high end will be fine as the wealthy are now feeling wealthy again, but the middle class are still looking at their checkbook, their house payments and having trouble pulling the trigger on new domestic furniture. States with cap-ex projects that can be skinnied down will find away to cut the aesthetics from the projects — just watch. High end architectural touches in public buildings during tough times are not politically popular with high unemployment.
This is what I know. Having 10 to 15 percent of the U.S. population that wants to work sit on the sidelines is not what you want. A class or group of society dropping out of school and not striving for (or even appreciating) their potential is not OK. Having greater than 25 percent of our workers unhappy with their jobs will never lead to the highest levels of productivity and quality. Tacit acceptance of 3.2 percent of the U.S. population either in prison or on parole is not improving our industries…unless you are building cabinets for prisons. Add to this the 10 percent of state workers that are working to supervise or administer our imprisoned population, its ridiculous. Add up the unemployed, unemployable, unnecessary government workers and disaffected we taxpayers are all subsidizing these members of society over the long term. This has to change.
We can all do better. I can do better, you can do better, Lord knows our state and federal representatives can do better. Currently, the hardwood lumber industry is in the process of trying to improve our industry’s image and demand by developing a “check off” system for the purpose of funding an education and branding model not unlike that of: Beef ...its what’s for dinner, Cotton, Milk…Got Milk, Pork…the other white meat. The goal of the program is to educate a generation of American’s on the benefits and virtues of using our renewable resource. I’m expecting a common sense approach on this that is easy to understand and convert into lasting results. Hopefully it will release us from the tree hugging mythology that serves to rot and burn our forests. Instead it will focus on producing jobs in the woods, create furniture of lasting beauty…I could go on but if you are reading this, you know the benefits. This will help with awareness and perhaps demand relative to imported products ranging from rubberwood, bamboo and mahoganies. But the benefits of this program are not expected to really show themselves for another 10 years.
In the mean time, take it upon yourself to insist on the use of our domestic wood in your finished products. Take the time to properly train, protect and build into your workforce. You will create a more satisfied crew. Happy workers are more productive and will serve as your advocates in your community (and will take better care of your equipment!) Remember, we are in a marathon and not a 50-yard dash. Create a pocket of excellence around your facility and encourage your friends in the industry to do likewise.
We must improve our plants, our workforce and our supply chain. Do it for yourself, do it for your grandkids, do it for your country. Do it right, do it soon. Complacency on this front is not acceptable. Complacency will drive even more of our manufacturing overseas. If this sounds a little over dramatic, I’ve made my point.
Go get ‘em.
